Quantitative Estimates of Climate since the Last Deglaciation from Pollen in Northwest Yunnan,SW China

论文摘要

A modern pollen dataset used in this study consists of 75 surface samples from ponds,lakes,and reservoirs in Northwest Yunnan,Southwest China.Climatic data for each site,including monthly,seasonal and dry/rainy seasonal,as well as mean annual temperature and precipitation,were derived from observational data（1961-2010） of 20 meteorological stations in this region using linear interpolation method.Canonical correspondence analysis（CCA） was used to reveal the climatic parameters that best reflect the main patterns of variation in this modern pollen dataset,and to detect anomalous observations.Results of CCA indicate that mean annual precipitation（MAP）,precipitation in dry season（November-April）（Pds）,and January temperature（Tjan） are three climatic parameters controlling the variation of this modern pollen dataset in Northwest Yunnan.Pollen–climate transfer functions for MAP,Pds and Tjan were developed using the weighted-averaging partial least squares（WA-PLS） regression models.According to the performance of WA-PLS regression models,3-component WA-PLS models were selected respectively for these three climatic parameters with low RMSEP（the root mean square error of prediction）,low maximum bias,and high coefficient of determination（r2） between observed and predicted values（RMSEP=48.7,17.9 mm,and 1.0 ℃;Maximum Bias=79.8,37.1 mm,and 1.6 ℃;r2=0.6,0.6,and 0.74 for MAP,Pds and Tjan,respectively）.Transfer functions for MAP,Pds and Tjan were then applied to a fossil pollen record from Lugu Lake in Northwest Yunnan to reconstruct paleoclimate in the catchment of this lake.Quantitative estimates of paleoclimate show that MAP and Pds fluctuated around 1000 and 110 mm（their present values）,but Tjan is 0.8-4.3 ℃ lower than the present（5 ℃） during 15000-12800 a BP（cal.a BP）.From 12800 to 11500 a BP,MAP and Pds were ca.50 and 25 mm higher than the present,and Tjan increased to be the present level.Three climatic parameters at 11500-9100 a BP reached their maxima throughout the last deglaciation and Holocene.MAP,Pds,and Tjan were 136-350,35-139 mm,and 0.4-1.2 ℃ higher than today,respectively.From 9100 to 5500 a BP,both MAP and Pds decreased,but they still were higher than the present,whereas Tjan declined to be the level slightly lower than the present.Three climatic parameters gradually decreased to be lower than the present from 5500 to 2500 a BP.After 2500 a BP,the catchment of Lugu Lake experienced a persistent period of low precipitation and temperature.On the average,MAP,Pds,and Tjan were 94,4 mm,and 1.9 ℃ lower than the present,respectively.Our quantitative estimates of MAP reveal a temporal pattern of precipitation variability associated with the strength of the Southwest Asian Monsoon during the last deglaciation and Holocene.

论文目录

文章来源

类型: 国内会议

作者: Caiming Shen,Bin Yin,Hongwei Meng,Linpei Huang,Qifa Sun,Qian Zheng,Hucai Zhang,Lingyu Tang,Chunhai Li

来源: 中国古生物学会孢粉学分会十届二次学术年会 2019-10-11

年度: 2019

分类: 基础科学

专业: 生物学,地质学,地质学

单位: Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographical Processes and Environmental Changes,College of Tourism and Geographical Sciences,Yunnan Normal University,Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences

分类号: Q913.84;P532

DOI: 10.26914/c.cnkihy.2019.073773

页码: 71

总页数: 1

文件大小: 475k

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