Influencing factors and prediction of ambient Peroxyacetyl nitrate concentration in Beijing,China

论文摘要

Peroxyacyl nitrates（PANs） are important secondary pollutants in ground-level atmosphere.Accurate prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentrations is crucial to guide effective precautions for before and during specific pollution events. In this study, four models based on the back-propagation（BP） artificial neural network（ANN） and multiple linear regression（MLR） methods were used to predict the hourly average PAN concentrations at Peking University, Beijing, in 2014. The model inputs were atmospheric pollutant data and meteorological parameters. Model 3 using a BP-ANN based on the original variables achieved the best prediction results among the four models, with a correlation coefficient（R） of 0.7089, mean bias error of -0.0043 ppb, mean absolute error of 0.4836?ppb, root mean squared error of 0.5320?ppb, and Willmott’s index of agreement of 0.8214. Based on a comparison of the performance indices of the MLR and BP-ANN models, we concluded that the BP-ANN model was able to capture the highly non-linear relationships between PAN concentration and the conventional atmospheric pollutant and meteorological parameters,providing more accurate results than the traditional MLR models did, with a markedly higher goodness of R. The selected meteorological and atmospheric pollutant parameters described a sufficient amount of PAN variation, and thus provided satisfactory prediction results. More specifically, the BP-ANN model performed very well for capturing the variation pattern when PAN concentrations were low. The findings of this study address some of the existing knowledge gaps in this research field and provide a theoretical basis for future regional air pollution control.

论文目录

• Introduction
• 1. Methods and materials
•   1.1. Data collection and preprocessing
•   1.2. Prediction of PAN concentrations
•     1.2.1. Multiple linear regression
•     1.2.2. Artificial neural network
•   1.3. Model evaluation criteria
• 2. Results and discussion
•   2.1. Variation pattern of PAN concentrations based on the monitoring data
•   2.2. PAN concentration predictions
•     2.2.1. MLR prediction model
•     2.2.2. BP-ANN prediction model
• 3. Conclusions

文章来源

类型: 期刊论文

作者: Boya Zhang,Bu Zhao,Peng Zuo,Zhi Huang,Jianbo Zhang

来源: Journal of Environmental Sciences 2019年03期

年度: 2019

分类: 工程科技Ⅰ辑

专业: 环境科学与资源利用

单位: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University,School of Environment, Tsinghua University

基金: supported by the “State Key R&D Program” of China.(Nos.2017YFC0212400,2016YFC0202200)

分类号: X831

页码: 189-197

总页数: 9

文件大小: 1986K

下载量: 21