论文摘要
Our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions depends on different factors including a reconstruction of the eruptive history of the volcano and the analysis of multi-source, long term time series of data.The recent availability of high-quality data allow us to applyprobabilistic or deterministic approaches and provide scientifically-based information to decision-makers and civil protection agencies. Critical issues concern the definition of the various type of volcanic hazards, their quantification, and the construction of alert level scales. Another issue is the identification of the hazards with elevated potential to cause fatalities and damages to infrastructures. Recent advances in technology allow us to collect real-time, high-quality data from in-situ instruments and remote platforms, however, the merged analysis of these data is not simple and needsthe interaction of different type of experts throughout elicitation procedures. In addition, while eruptions are always preceded by unrest, an unrestis not always followed by an eruption. So a question arises about the significance of signals anticipating（or not） an eruption. Other complexities are related to the occurrence of eruptionearthquake cause/effect relations and to hydrothermal systems,whose role in the active dynamics of a volcano may play a major role. As a result, the understanding of unrest episodes is a critical issue for the scientific community. Examples of unrests, recent advances in volcano monitoring techniques, and of international initiatives are presented along with successful and unsuccessful examples of forecast. Case studies of hazard evaluation at different volcanoes including Vesuvius and Changbaishan are analyzed.
论文目录
文章来源
类型: 国际会议
作者: Guido VENTURA,SHAN Xuanlong
来源: 第九届世界华人地质科学研讨会 2019-06-01
年度: 2019
分类: 基础科学
专业: 地质学,地球物理学
单位: INGVJilin University
分类号: P317
DOI: 10.26914/c.cnkihy.2019.028289
页码: 31
总页数: 1
文件大小: 55k
下载量: 1