Spatial Pattern Difference of Contribution between Short and Long-duration Heavy Rainfall to Total Heavy Rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015

论文摘要

Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall,causing flood,casualties,property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development,life security,ecosystem,etc.; brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area; become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk; and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention,while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China.When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours,that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short-duration heavy rainfall,while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall,on the spatial distribution,total rainfall,total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015,and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime,long-duration heavy rainfall showed " increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern,and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed " high in southeast-low in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. On the contrary,the contribution of short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed " low in southeast-high in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. The contribution trend of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed " increasing-mosaic with increasing and decreasing-increasing" spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest,and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. On the contrary,the contribution trend of long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed mosaic with increasing and increasing in the northeast,slightly decreasing in the southwest,and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. There was a climate transition zone from northeast to southwest,which was essentially coincident with the arid zone. The results suggested that the precipitation in China was changing to extremely accompanied by short-duration storm increased significantly. Chinese heavy rainfall especially the increase of short-duration heavy rainfall suggests that human activity is likely to be triggered an increasing in extreme precipitation.

论文目录

• 1 Data and methods
•   1.1 Data source
•   1.2 Calculation methods
• 2 Results and analyses
•   2.1 Spatial pattern of change trend of heavy rainfall with different du-ration
•     2.1.1 Change trend of total rainfall.
•     2.1.2 Change trend of total heavy rainfall.
•     2.1.3 Change trend of short-duration heavy rainfall.
•     2.1.4 Change trend of long-duration heavy rainfall.
•     2.1.5 Comparison of change trend of heavy rainfall with differ-ent duration in different regions.
•   2.2 Spatial pattern of contribution of heavy rainfall with different dura-tion to total rainfall
•     2.2.1 Spatial pattern of contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall.
•     2.2.2 Spatial pattern of contribution of heavy rainfall with dif-ferent duration to total heavy rainfall.
•     2.2.3 Change trend of heavy rainfall with different duration in different regions.
•   2.3 Change trend of contribution of heavy rainfall with different dura-tion to total rainfall
•     2.3.1 Change trend of proportion of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall.
•     2.3.2 Change trend of contribution of heavy rainfall with differ-ent duration to total heavy rainfall.
•     2.3.3 Change trend of contribution of heavy rainfall with dif-ferent duration to total heavy rainfall in different regions.
• 3 Conclusions and discussions
•   3.1 Conclusions
•   3.2 Discussions

文章来源

类型: 期刊论文

作者: Kong Feng

来源: Meteorological and Environmental Research 2019年04期

年度: 2019

分类: 基础科学

专业: 气象学

单位: School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Center for Social Risk Assessment in China,Tsinghua University

基金: Supported by the National Natural Science Fund(41801064),China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756),the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)

分类号: P426.62

DOI: 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2019.04.013

页码: 51-60

总页数: 10

文件大小: 2586K

下载量: 8