The “Thucydides Trap” has become a hot concept in academic and political discussions across the world. But does it really exist? Or more specifically, is a war inevitable between a rising power and an established power? Amid the current friction between China and the U.S., there is a heightened interest in finding the answer.
In June 2017, Graham Allison, a prominent international political expert in the U.S. and the first dean of the John F.Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University who coined the term five years earlier, published a book titled
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? in which he elaborates his views. Do China and the U.S. want a war? Of course, not, he said.But will the structural pressures the two countries face lead to conflict? Yes, he answered. After an examination of more than a dozen historical cases, Allison warned that the risk of war is real. But as an optimist, he believes that China and the U.S. can work together to find a path of peaceful development.
In an exclusive interview with China Focus, an online magazine published by the China International Publishing Group, Allison admitted that China's rapid development is causing panic in the U.S. With changes in the China-U.S. power balance, the two countries currently interact in a way that puts pressure on both of them. He has repeatedly stressed that the establishment of new strategic relations between China and the U.S. has become a top priority. An edited excerpt of the interview follows:
合作创新市场绩效的经验研究，由于数据资料的缺乏，其发展程度远远落后于理论研究，在20世纪八九十年代只有少量零星文献。四大数据库⑧的建立，为学者们的经验研究提供了可靠的数据来源，经验研究才开始逐步发展起来，但是研发方法的局限性日益凸显出来。这方面的内容可以概括为两大主题：合作创新市场绩效的评价和技术溢出对合作创新市场绩效的影响。
综上所述，在治疗非小细胞肺癌患者中，运用微创手术的效果更好，相比于传统开放手术，具有明显的优势与安全性。
Raymond Shakesnider (center), a soybean farmer,introduces his products to customers on his farm in Louisiana on May 20. The U.S.-provoked trade friction with China has dealt a heavy blow to U.S. agricultural states
China Focus: How do you view current Sino-U.S. relations? Are Sino-U.S. relations slipping into a new cold war?
Graham Allison: In the U.S., this is not just about [President Donald] Trump; the whole U.S. political class and actually the whole policy class have essentially undergone a sea change. This turned everything upside down: Now, a country that for two decades was America's strategic partner is named America's strategic adversary.
人本主义学派从内在直接宣称了创造力是人人都有的本质和潜能。其代表人物马斯洛(Maslow)提出了“自我实现论”，系统地阐述了这一点。“自我实现论”是基于“需求层次说”，而“需求层次说”是基于“健康人”的概念，“健康人”不仅生理健康，更重要的是心理健康和人格健全。健康人机体的基本倾向在于尽量实现自身能力、潜力和自身人格，即“实现其能力的最佳状态” 。“健康人”的本性中都存在这种永远“向上”和“向前”发展的自我实现需要的动机，也就是创造力的动机，它是“无止境的”，从而也成为人类前进的永远动力 。
Confucius said the most important thing is to call things by their real name. So, if the real name is not strategic partner but strategic adversary, then that changes everything.Does Washington have a coherent idea on what to do? No, nothing. It seems that it has an attitude, not a strategy.
And therefore, we're drifting into a Thucydidean dynamic that I've written about in my book, not just toward a new cold war,but what could be a real war, God forbid.That's where we are today and I think now,there's a search—certainly in Beijing—for a new strategic concept.
People initially were hoping that they were wrong because of Trump, or that maybe he would get entangled after the election,investigations about his actions would distract him and it would all go away. But I think that most people in the government now understand that view is not correct. The strategic concept of the relationship between the U.S. and China has essentially collapsed.
The Chinese dream is about China trying to realize its potential, be everything China can be and make China great again, and that's understandable. But it's one thing to say what is your intention and another thing to be realistic about what the consequences are, even unintended consequences.
So the unintended consequence of China's rise has been its worldwide impact.From an American perspective, China hardly mattered, was very little 40 years ago and was encouraged to grow up.
I'm very fortunate to be here in Beijing to help celebrate the 40th anniversary of China's normalization of relations with the U.S. I think anybody who watches what happened over the last 40 years has to be astounded. It's been a whole series of miracles.
In 1978, 90 percent of Chinese people were struggling just to survive on $2 a day.But in 2018, that number was only 1 percent and President Xi Jinping says it will be zero by the end of 2020. That's 700 million people who used to just barely survive and now have a life. That's a great achievement for humankind and as a fellow citizen of planet Earth, the Chinese people should be proud.
Is China's rise a threat to the U.S.?
海伦·凯勒已悄悄起床，她摸到书桌前，打开昨天还未读完的盲文书，仔细摸着，摸着。天气尤寒，海伦的手不禁在微微打颤。时间总是过得飞快，天完全亮了，海伦迎来了一天中第一缕阳光，海伦笑了，笑得那样灿烂，像阳光一样。知识的满足和阳光的温暖，给海伦带来了慰藉。
For Americans, its rise is shocking. Life is going to be very difficult because China will continue rising and the U.S. will continue thinking it should be the ruling power and that interaction will be stressful for both parties.
That's the reason why, looking ahead, if we want to have a successful future together, it won't be the same as the last 40 years.But maybe we could construct a new form of great power relations, a new form that the world has never seen before. But, that's pretty hard to do.
A visitor showcases his Chinese name written by a calligrapher at an exhibition marking the 40th anniversary of China-U.S.diplomatic relations in Los Angeles on May 17
XINHUA
How do you view China's Belt and Road Initiative?
It's difficult to create something entirely new. However, we live in a world where there wasn't an Internet 20 years ago or smartphones 10 years ago. So new things are being invented, and maybe in this area, we could be inventive.
本文着重研究了基于Android的数据库移动学习系统的实现，设计了系统的开发模式、功能模块结构并详细阐述了移动端和后台管理段的实现方案。通过开发基于android的数据库移动学习交互平台，辅助了课堂教学，为创建多样化教学模式，优化教学设计，提高教学质量发挥更大的作用。
I think the Belt and Road Initiative is a brilliant diplomatic initiative for China. I would say it has about 10 strands, but one strand has to do with the image of China helping integrate the world and develop the nodes along the network that runs from China to Europe and maybe beyond.
If there can be a high-speed rail that runs from Shanghai to Rotterdam and moves goods in a day or a day and a half, that would be fantastic. And if there can be a 5G backbone that allows people to use their smartphones to download in a second things that now take 15 minutes, that would be fantastic, and you know, we would all use it.
But if it's all done to China's standards, it will also be a source of influence for China.And again I have to say, that's normal international politics. The rest of the world, especially the U.S., is having trouble coming up with another idea to compete with this idea.
对断路器合闸弹簧压缩量调节后，再次进行机械特性测试时，发现断路器合闸时间及合闸不同期时间皆满足厂家技术标准要求，测试数据如表2所示。断路器机械特性曲线也无异常，如图2所示。但是，断路器三相合闸速度却始终低于厂家技术标准要求的2.9～3.6 m/s。
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about China's economic development?
I'm always optimistic. I've been optimistic about China's growth for the last 10 years, even though many outsiders have said China is slowing down and it's going to have a hard landing.China has huge obstacles. There's no doubt about that.
当谈到对于人才的需求这个问题时，金汉宏董事长咧嘴一笑，“印刷是一个朝阳行业，它是永远没有办法被替代的，印刷的未来还是在你们年轻人的手中。”说完，其望向远方，眼中粹着的光，竟把那铺天盖地的红日都比了下去。
But it has a very capable government and a very determined leadership. They have many tools, including policy tools which they can use effectively. I think the question of whether China and the U.S. can find a way to have a degree of agreement and even a new strategic concept for a constructive relationship will be a big challenge. ■
“Looking ahead, if we want to have a successful future together, it won't be the same as the last 40 years. But maybe we could construct a new form of great power relations, a new form that the world has never seen before.”
— Graham Allison
Copyedited by Madhusudan Chaubey
Comments to yulintao@bjreview.com
标签：海伦论文; 断路器论文; 健康论文; 绩效论文; 论文论文; 政治论文; 法律论文; 外交论文; 国际关系论文; 中国外交论文; 对外关系论文; 《BeijingReview》2019年第25期论文;